AGP Executive Report

Petrol & Energy Market: Dangote Refinery cut petrol ex-gantry price by ₦75 to ₦1,175/litre, citing easing Middle East tensions and softer global oil prices. Cooking Gas Supply: FG moved to curb LPG prices after reports hit N2,500/kg, ordering marketers to increase imports to stabilise availability. Agribusiness & Exports: FG inaugurated a Technical Working Group on agricultural produce residue standards to tackle export rejections linked to pesticide residues and other food safety gaps. Food Loss Solutions: Solar cold storage is gaining traction across Africa, helping farmers reduce post-harvest spoilage and reach global markets. Manufacturing & Jobs: Local meter makers warned of a showdown over Nigeria’s DISREP metering rollout, pushing for enforceable guarantees for indigenous firms. Transport & Industry: Shettima said 10,000 electric tricycles will roll out from August, while Lagos ports ranked among the world’s most improved in the World Bank index. Economy Watch: Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.93% in May, with food and transport still key pressure points. Policy & Governance: Tinubu urged swift, fair justice as he commissioned the Court of Appeal Abuja division building complex. Trade & Security: Customs intercepted 3,310 jerry cans of smuggled vegetable oil, targeting illicit trade that undermines local industry.

Inflation Watch: Nigeria’s headline inflation climbed to 15.93% in May 2026 (from 15.69% in April) as food prices stayed firm, with month-on-month inflation easing to 1.75%. Energy & Power: NERC introduced a tougher safety and compensation regime for the power sector, including a minimum N15m payout for fatalities from electrical accidents, while TCN warned that vandalism destroyed 14 spans of a 132kV line in Niger State. Industrial Growth: Dangote unveiled plans for a large free trade and industrial zone in Olokola, Ondo, built around power, water and logistics; AFC also committed $600m to Dangote’s fertiliser expansion (tripling Nigeria output and adding a plant in Ethiopia). Manufacturing & Policy: AMMON opposed NESREA’s proposed 80-micron single-use plastics ban, asking for a regulatory impact assessment and local content guarantees. Food & Livestock: Plateau State began construction of a modern abattoir and veterinary hospital in Barkin Ladi, targeting 500 cattle and 200 tonnes of poultry daily. Digital & Health Systems: NBSA launched a digital National Blood Management System to improve licensing, screening, quality assurance and blood logistics. Security & Trade: FCT police paraded suspects linked to kidnapping logistics in Bwari, and Nigeria Customs seized N403.5m in illegal vegetable oil imports.

Security Operations: DHQ has launched Operation Clean Sweep III in Katsina after the death of retired Maj.-Gen. Rabe Abubakar in bandits’ captivity, with raids and clearance exercises reported around Dikkawa Hills, Adua, Nasarawa and Karaduwa. Regional Business Risk: Anti-immigrant protests in South Africa are pressuring firms operating across Africa; MTN says it’s supporting repatriations, while Standard Bank and Gold Fields warn of rising political and operational uncertainty. Logistics & Trade: Egypt and DP World are discussing expanded logistics centers to deepen trade links across Africa, with meetings planned between DP World and Egyptian exporters. Tax & Cost of Living: IMF advice to extend VAT to fuel products and add telecom excise duties is drawing pushback from Nigerian finance and development experts, who call it ill-timed amid high living costs. Agriculture & Trade Blocs: Nigeria seeks BRICS support to boost agriculture, highlighting special agro-processing zones and smallholder-focused policies. Oil & Markets: Crude prices fell sharply after a US-Iran deal signalled reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Nigeria’s fuel costs expected to ease if global prices keep dropping. Finance Regulation: CBN is proposing ring-fencing and exposure limits for closely linked banks and fintechs, while analysts warn it could force capital raises and restructuring. Digital Payments: MTN Group Fintech and Ant International plan a Nigeria MoMo super app rollout next quarter to integrate commerce and financial services. Oil Sector Accountability: SERAP sues NNPCL over alleged ₦5.9bn rebranding spending, seeking full financial disclosure and contractor details. Energy & Growth Outlook: World Bank forecasts slower SSA growth in 2026, but says higher energy prices may benefit oil exporters like Nigeria. Markets: NGX closed the week up 0.88%, with market cap rising to ₦156.97tn.

IMF Revenue Push: The IMF advises Nigeria to extend VAT to fuel products and add excise duties on telecom services to sustain spending and fund development, warning current reforms may not cover medium-term capital plans. CBN Banking Ring-Fencing: The CBN proposes rules to separate banks from closely linked fintech and other subsidiaries, including limits on using customer funds for affiliates, to boost consumer protection and stability. Security & Governance Pressure: Former Army chief Tukur Buratai warns insecurity may soon target ministers, senators and governors, while NUJ South-South flags fake military escorts and urges stronger road and community security. Local Defence Industry Drive: Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu calls for homegrown arms production and tighter financial controls to choke terrorist funding. Oil, Power & Cost Reality: Nigeria’s crude output hits a 15-month high as reserves rise above $50bn, but Kemi Badenoch argues oil wealth still hasn’t translated into reliable electricity. Agribusiness & Food Prices: FMDA expects inflation to ease in May on steadier food prices, even as traders report ginger price spikes in Lagos. Mining Crackdown: Niger shuts illegal mining sites to reduce tensions in host communities. Civic Tech for 2027: Laide James unveils a voter-to-candidate dialogue platform ahead of the 2027 elections. Education & Youth: OAU wins the 2026 University Duel competition, and Sterling Bank backs Lagos schools debate to build critical thinking skills.

Security & Defence: Nigeria’s Defence Minister Christopher Musa says global wars (Ukraine, Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) are blocking access to military hardware, and warns that the lack of a national database is making policing harder. Regional Security: Nigeria’s foreign affairs minister urges ambassadors to ECOWAS host countries to prioritise security cooperation and intelligence sharing. Insecurity Clampdown (Kogi): Kogi orders a 7pm travel curfew, closes markets, bans okada in hinterland corridors, restricts fuel sales in jerrycans, and shuts movement on state roads after 7pm to cut bandit logistics. Infrastructure & Industry: Works Minister Dave Umahi says Tinubu is reviving colonial-era road dreams, citing progress on the Calabar–Ebonyi–Benue Trans-Saharan Superhighway. Energy/Trade Corridor: SONATRACH breaks ground on Algeria’s segment of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline to move Nigerian gas toward European markets via Niger. Finance & Markets: IMF flags risks from rising US-dollar stablecoins in Nigeria and urges CBN to eliminate multiple exchange rates; meanwhile, pension funds expand into equities and federal securities to N23.87tn. Business & Policy: NACCIMA appoints a new National Assembly relations executive to track bills affecting commerce, industry, mines and agriculture. Food & Agriculture: Africa’s $100bn agriculture funding gap is in focus as a Nairobi summit seeks investment deals to unlock capital for food systems. Health Regulation: NAFDAC warns Nigerians about a US recall of children’s ibuprofen suspension over contamination concerns.

Security & Food Systems: Gunmen killed 17 farmers in Zamfara while attacking workers in Gurun Namaye, Maradun, as insecurity keeps disrupting farming and peace talks. Defence & Policy: Defence Minister Christopher Musa blamed Nigeria’s insecurity response on lack of a national database and warned that wars abroad are blocking access to weapons, pushing the case for local defence production. Regional Diplomacy: Nigeria’s foreign affairs chief urged newly appointed envoys to rebuild ECOWAS unity, defend democratic governance, and tackle terrorism. TVET & Skills Pipeline: NABTEB said 15,281 candidates sat for the 2026 technical colleges entrance exam across 203 centres, with TVET positioned as a jobs and entrepreneurship route. Power & Industry Reality Check: UK Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said Nigeria’s oil wealth has never translated into reliable electricity, calling it a public policy failure. Economy & Markets: World Bank retained Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast at 4.1% and 2027 at 4.2%, citing Middle East shocks and energy-price pressure. Agribusiness Inputs: FG said it secured 2026 wet-season fertiliser supply early, shielding farmers from global shipping disruptions and input price spikes. Payments & Fintech Rails: Monnify reported processing N25tn in 2025, signalling a shift toward competing for the payment infrastructure behind consumer apps. Governance & Accountability: FRC and NIQS signed an MoU to curb abuses in MDAs’ contract awards and procurement irregularities. Oil & Industrial Hope: CharlyBoy praised Dangote Refinery as a “national asset” after a visit with Obasanjo.

Security & Defence: Nigeria’s Defence Minister Musa says terrorism and banditry persist partly due to local informants and suppliers, while the DSS says it intercepted a major arms logistics network in Kano, arresting a suspected courier with AK-47s and RPG tubes. Insecurity & Food Production: Gunmen killed 17 farmers in Zamfara during the planting season, deepening fears that attacks are pushing farmers off land and worsening food insecurity. Oil & Gas Infrastructure: The Nigerian Navy arrested three suspects over vandalism of the Oando–Ondewari pipeline in Bayelsa, after a raid linked to crude oil spillage. Capital Markets: With IPO activity cooling, Nigerian corporates are increasingly using the commercial papers market to raise short-term funds. Agribusiness: Maize value-chain coverage highlights opportunities in trading and processing, while FG input support continues with free fertiliser distribution to thousands of South-west farmers. Energy Transition & Industry: Gas minister Ekpo urged investors to unlock Nigeria’s vast gas reserves for industrialisation, and meter manufacturers are pushing back against World Bank-backed DISREP metering procurement that they fear may sideline local firms. Digital Economy: Crypto operators stress trust and transparency as adoption grows, and CBN’s Payments System Vision 2028 is framed as a push toward deeper inclusion and safer payments. Aviation Costs: African airlines warn jet-fuel price shocks are straining margins and forcing route reviews.

Logistics & Trade: CEVA Logistics and EFL Africa have launched a Nigeria joint venture, CEVA EFL Limited, to deepen West Africa shipping and inland container depot (ICD) services, including faster barge-linked movement from Lagos ports. UK–Nigeria Growth: The UK and Nigeria unveiled a £15m, three-year growth programme to unlock private investment and support reform-driven expansion, with a digital economy track via SPRIRET. Digital Skills: NITDA and the DAWN Commission sealed an MoU to boost digital literacy and innovation across Southwest Nigeria, while NCDMB trained 160 Kebbi and Zamfara youths in AI and data analytics. Energy & Industry: Enugu signed grant agreements for solar mini-grids to electrify four rural communities, and Algeria’s SONATRACH broke ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment to move Nigerian gas toward Europe. Capital Markets: FMDQ approved quotation of SKLD’s ₦7.30bn commercial papers to fund working capital and logistics expansion. Oil Output: Nigeria reported May crude production of about 1.53m bpd, exceeding its OPEC quota. Security & Governance: Tinubu warned bandits, kidnappers and terror financiers to surrender or face full state force as Nigeria marks Democracy Day.

Fuel & Downstream: Several filling stations cut petrol prices to about ₦1,330–₦1,350/litre as marketers respond to Dangote Refinery pricing pressure and Middle East-driven oil market swings. Oil Output & OPEC: Nigeria hit an 11-month high in May, averaging 1.53mbpd crude and 170,446bpd condensates, exceeding its OPEC quota (about 102%), a boost for government revenue and forex. Energy Infrastructure: SONATRACH broke ground on Algeria’s segment of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, reviving the corridor to move Nigerian gas to Europe via Niger and Algeria. Industry Skills & Jobs: FG commissioned an Automotive Training Centre in Gusau, Zamfara, graduating 100 youths trained to repair petrol and CNG tricycles/motorcycles, as policy reforms push local capacity. Mining & Data: SMDF says “data is the new oil” under the EMERGE mineral exploration push, shifting Nigeria toward data-driven evaluation and value addition. Urban Infrastructure: Lagos plans to reconstruct major Ikeja GRA roads with concrete pavement and solar street lighting. Business Climate: NESG’s Business Confidence Monitor shows fragile expansion in May, with manufacturing, services and trade improving despite power outages, insecurity and finance limits. Aviation Sector: Max Air domestic operations face disruption after ground handlers withdrew services over unpaid debts. Macro Watch: World Bank cut 2026 global growth outlook to 2.5%, citing Middle East conflict, higher energy prices and borrowing costs.

Oil & Gas Market Signals: Nigeria’s crude output hit a 15-month high in May, rising to 1.53mbpd and pushing the country above its OPEC quota for the first time in 10 months, a boost for forex and investor confidence. Fuel Pricing: Premium motor spirit pump prices eased as filling stations adjusted to Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot cut, while crude volatility tied to Middle East tensions keeps prices fluid. LPG Crisis: Cooking gas prices surged again amid domestic supply shortages and higher depot rates, pushing many households back to firewood/charcoal. Power & Infrastructure: Abia State gets a digital healthcare upgrade as Interswitch rolls out its eClinic electronic medical records platform to improve service delivery. Energy Access: Greenville (Liberia) moves toward electrification after 30+ years, with EU-funded works nearing completion—another reminder of how power delivery unlocks business activity. Industrial Finance: FMDQ Exchange approved quotation of Sunbeth Global Concepts’ N150.41bn multi-series commercial papers, showing continued corporate appetite for market-based funding. Aviation Safety: NCAA suspended an operator’s permit after a private jet landed on a road near Asaba and left without proper clearance. Security & Transport: NSCDC confirmed five operatives injured in a Delta train derailment; authorities are probing the cause. Local Industry/Trade Zones: NEPZA reassured investors at the Calabar Free Trade Zone, with calls for better street lighting and solar-powered solutions. MSMEs & Jobs: A US-backed venture studio launched a N600bn scheme for Imo grassroots micro-businesses under OKOBI to improve capital access. Food Security Debate: Peter Obi renewed criticism of Tinubu’s food strategy as hunger worsens, while S&P Global warns food prices could drive inflation across emerging markets. Consumer & Retail: Golden Terra Oil launched the “Get Gold Promo” rewarding buyers with free seasoning packs. Governance & Courts: Senate moves to expand appellate and federal court capacity amid backlog concerns.

Aviation Safety: Nigeria’s NCAA and Minister Festus Keyamo moved to investigate an aircraft that landed on an unfinished road near Asaba, then departed without clearance—operator’s permit was suspended and the flight grounded. Energy & Industry Finance: Standard Bank Group backed Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s planned IPO and future expansion, while the refinery’s listing continues to draw capital-market attention. AfCFTA Export Push: Nigeria is set to use a $1bn AfCFTA financing window to help exporters scale production and integrate into regional value chains, with focus on documentation and trade barriers. Oil Sector Oversight: Senate renewed its arrest directive for former NNPCL boss Mele Kyari over alleged gaps in ₦210tn audit queries, keeping pressure on accountability in the oil firm. Power Sector Watch: New Power Minister Joseph Tegbe inherits a grid crisis marked by frequent collapses and uneven Electricity Act 2023 rollout, with calls for stronger governance across the value chain. Food & Health Debate: Stakeholders renewed concerns over GMO foods and unsafe food, as Nigeria faces high foodborne illness and death figures. Security & Economy: IMF commended Tinubu’s reforms for improving macro stability, but warned poverty and food insecurity risks remain as inflation pressures continue. Regional Energy Infrastructure: Algeria’s SONATRACH broke ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment to move Nigerian gas toward European markets.

Dangote Refinery Finance & Energy Security: Standard Bank pledged support for Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s planned IPO and future expansion, reinforcing Nigeria’s push to deepen local refining capacity. Telecom Transparency: Airtel Nigeria launched a Web Data Calculator to help subscribers estimate internet usage, following similar moves after data depletion complaints. Macroeconomic Outlook: The IMF said Nigeria’s reforms are improving stability and resilience, but warned poverty and food insecurity remain severe; it also projected foreign reserves could reach $62bn by 2027. Crypto Regulation: The IMF urged Nigeria to strengthen stablecoin and crypto oversight to protect monetary policy, financial stability, and capital flow management. Power & Infrastructure: Tinubu commissioned Abuja’s Arterial Road N5, promising lower logistics costs and investment gains. Security & Industry Impact: Bandits attacked communities in Niger State, killing residents and rustling cattle; separately, FCT police operations reportedly killed suspected bandits and rescued kidnapping victims. Defence Manufacturing: DICON partner DICON Gray unveiled an indigenous tactical shotgun platform to support state security outfits. Tax Administration: FG launched Rev360, a digital tax platform aimed at boosting compliance and revenue collection. Trade & Manufacturing Policy: Senate moves to ban textile imports to revive local mills, while SMEDAN pushed packaging and branding reforms to make nMSMEs export-ready under AfCFTA. Aviation Safety: NCAA grounded a private jet after it landed on a roadway near Asaba without approval.

Telecom Consumer Relief: NCC says MTN, Airtel, Glo and 9mobile have compensated 75m+ Nigerians with free airtime after poor network quality complaints, following an NCC directive. Energy & Households: Nigeria’s cooking gas crisis deepens as LPG supply lags demand and more gas is exported; prices have jumped sharply, pushing many households toward charcoal. Industrial Policy: The Senate moves to ban textile imports to revive local mills, create jobs and cut insecurity linked to unemployment and smuggling. Power Sector Governance: TCN says transmission can handle more than current generation and urges stronger laws and political will to curb vandalism, while LASG seeks tighter enforcement on industrial pollution. Macroeconomy & Finance: IMF flags opacity risks in Nigeria’s proposed $5bn Abu Dhabi Bank swap/derivatives-style borrowing, while FG insists reforms are working. Housing Finance: Tinubu says 1,859 families in 25 states accessed N128bn mortgages under MOFI at 9.75% fixed interest. Trade & Infrastructure: Algeria breaks ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment, reviving the corridor to move Nigerian gas to Europe. Security & Politics: Senate queries defence spending over rising kidnappings; Kwankwaso calls for a security strategy overhaul beyond budgets. Digital Messaging: Truecaller and Gupshup partner to expand verified business messaging across Nigeria and other markets.

Energy & Infrastructure: SONATRACH breaks ground on Algeria’s segment of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, reviving a major corridor to move Nigerian gas to Europe via Niger and Algeria. Power Sector: New Power Minister Joseph Tegbe pledges “visible improvements” and structured reforms aimed at reliable, affordable electricity. Oil & Gas Business: Seplat Energy names Tony Elumelu as incoming Chairman (Jan 2027) and Engr. Effiong Okon as CEO (Aug 1, 2026) under its Roadmap 2030. Economy & Finance: Nigeria’s reforms get a boost as the IMF issues a positive Article IV assessment; meanwhile, the IMF warns against a proposed $5bn derivatives-based financing plan as potentially opaque. Telecoms Consumer Protection: NCC says operators have compensated over 75m subscribers for poor network quality, while it independently verifies claims. Trade & Industry Policy: Senate pushes for a total ban on textile imports to revive local manufacturing and jobs; FG also unveils a $1bn AfCFTA Adjustment Fund Credit Facility to help exporters scale. Security: Nigerian Army reports an ambush in Kaduna’s Rigachikun area that killed an officer and six soldiers. Governance & Compliance: INEC invalidates 2,103 double voter registrations in Ekiti ahead of the June 20 governorship election. Digital Regulation: Senate advances a bill to regulate virtual assets and cryptocurrency service providers.

Power Sector Reform: TCN granted Mainstream Energy Solutions access to start construction of 2×330kV bays at Kainji, targeting an extra 220MW evacuation once new turbines come online. Cabinet & Policy: President Tinubu swore in Joseph Tegbe as Minister of Power, promising gradual but visible electricity improvements, while NCC appointed Princess Emiko as interim chair of the Digital Bridge Institute. Energy Trade & Costs: Nigeria’s petrol import bill crashed to N87.40bn in Q1 2026 (down 96% y/y), driven by heavier reliance on locally refined products, especially Dangote. Digital Economy: MTN launched One TV, a pay-as-you-go streaming service where users can pay with airtime or mobile money, and telcos rejected NBS’s telecom foreign-capital figures. Trade & Investment: Nigeria’s trade surplus jumped to N7.55tn in Q1 2026 as imports fell; Afreximbank said it has committed $83bn to Nigeria, with Lagos set to host the next Intra-African Trade Fair. Agribusiness Risks: Plateau farmers face fake fertiliser threats, while Nasarawa plans mini dams to boost year-round farming.

Rail & Aviation Infrastructure: FG says it will extend Lagos’ Red Line rail to Murtala Muhammed Airport terminals (Ikeja Bus Stop to GAT, MMA2 and the international wing), aiming to deepen Lagos’ aviation and logistics hub status. Energy & Gas Exports: Algeria’s SONATRACH breaks ground on its segment of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, reviving a project meant to move Nigerian gas through Niger to Algeria and onward to Europe. Healthcare Security: NARD declares assaults on healthcare workers a National Health and Security Emergency, citing 21 cases of attacks in a year and issuing a 21-day ultimatum to the Tinubu government. Local Government Finance Probe: Edo ALGON chair Sunday Akiotu is being grilled by police SFU over alleged diversion of council funds, including N100m-linked transactions. Trade & Industry Signals: NBS reports Nigeria’s trade picture improved in Q1 2026, while imports fell year-on-year; Ghana also rejects mine nationalisation at a West Africa mining forum, pushing for predictable rules. Digital Economy & Payments: CBN plans to deploy AI under PSV 2028 to curb fraud in digital payments, as fintech Moniepoint expands engineering talent via DreamDevs. Labour & Security Pressure: NLC and TUC threaten nationwide strike over worsening insecurity, warning workers’ livelihoods and productivity are under siege. Public Health & Food Safety: FG rolls out new malaria tools (next-gen ITNs and vaccine/chemoprevention approaches), and WAEC reports exam disruptions after a deadly crash carrying WASSCE papers.