AGP Executive Report

Power Sector: NBET has begun settling ₦729bn in legacy debts to power generators and gas suppliers, a move that could support plant maintenance and electricity supply, though reliable gas and grid infrastructure remain essential. Oil and Gas: NUPRC is targeting 788,000 barrels per day of shut-in production for restoration; Dangote Group projects output could reach 1.72 million bpd in the fourth quarter. Fuel Costs: Nigeria recorded the world’s steepest diesel price rise—82.7% between February and August, UNCTAD says—adding pressure to business and household costs. Local Manufacturing: The Federal Government wants ministries to buy Nigerian-assembled vehicles and raise local production from below 8% to 70%, while the Senate is seeking tighter limits on used-car imports. Agriculture: Smallholder farmers say tractor-hire charges of ₦10,000–₦12,000 per plot put mechanisation out of reach, limiting the impact of the government’s tractor programme.

Oil & Refining: Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele says Nigeria’s 1.8 million daily barrels are not all available to government, as costs and contracts limit crude allocations to local refineries. September production, meanwhile, rose to 1.821 million barrels per day. Energy Costs: UNCTAD says Nigeria recorded the world’s steepest diesel price rise, at 82.7% from February to August. Lagos Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat says reliable, affordable energy is vital to business growth and investment. Credit & Investment: Fitch raised Nigeria’s outlook to positive and affirmed its ‘B’ rating, citing $54.9 billion in reserves and economic reforms. Automotive Manufacturing: The government aims to raise local vehicle production from under 8% of demand to 70%, while senators seek tighter curbs on used-vehicle imports to support domestic makers. Agribusiness: Nigeria is targeting $7.1 billion in sugar investment to reduce import dependence, and Oyo’s sugar factory is set for launch after more than ₦2.2 billion in government support.

Local Manufacturing: Federal agencies must buy vehicles from licensed Nigerian assemblers under the Nigeria First Policy; foreign-built purchases require presidential clearance. Fuel Costs: UNCTAD says Nigeria recorded the world’s steepest diesel price rise, 82.7% from February to August, while petrol rose 48.1%. PETROAN wants at least 30% of NNPC’s discounted petrol allocated to independent marketers to widen access. Rice Market: The government and processors are at odds over prices, with officials seeking N55,000–57,000 per 50kg bag against market prices of N60,000–67,000. Oil and Gas: Crude output reached 1.821 million barrels per day in September; regulators are targeting 788,000 bpd of shut-in production and have opened 40 blocks for licensing. Power: A new ministerial committee will coordinate efforts to curb vandalism of electricity infrastructure, which drives outages and repair costs. Agribusiness: Nigeria’s oil palm association head, Alphonsus Inyang, has been elected to lead the global coalition of oil palm smallholders.

Made-in-Nigeria Vehicles: NADDC and the Bureau of Public Procurement are working to ensure federal agencies buy locally assembled vehicles, with legislative backing planned for the Nigeria First policy. Refining and Oil Supply: The finance minister says Nigeria cannot yet supply the Dangote refinery’s full crude requirement of 700,000 barrels a day, underscoring the supply challenge facing domestic refining. Clean Energy: The government has delayed a planned solar import ban, prioritising affordable access while local manufacturing capacity grows. Innovation: 298 Nigerian innovators have pitched their technologies to investors in London, seeking funding and routes to global markets. Power Sector: NBET has begun settling ₦729 billion in debts to power generators and gas suppliers, a move intended to improve liquidity across the electricity chain.

Oil and Gas: Nigeria’s crude production climbed to 1.821 million barrels per day in September, while regulators aim to restore 788,000 bpd of shut-in output. A new licensing round offers 40 oil and gas blocks, and Nigeria LNG is pushing ahead with plans for Train 8. Fuel Costs: NNPC Retail’s 30-day petrol discount targets N1,350 per litre; the government says it is funded by the company’s retail margin, not public funds. Labour is demanding lasting price relief, a key issue for transporters and manufacturers. Manufacturing: Nigeria has more than ₦40 trillion in untapped manufacturing opportunities, but unreliable electricity cost manufacturers an estimated ₦1.35 trillion in alternative power in 2025. Infrastructure and Power: The government plans to deploy 90,000 kilometres of fibre across the country by 2028. Separately, the Rural Electrification Agency and Stanbic IBTC have agreed on ₦100 billion in financing for renewable energy projects. Agribusiness: An NSDC-backed sugar factory in Oyo has entered test runs, with ₦2.2 billion invested as the project nears commissioning. Economic Outlook: The World Bank forecasts Nigeria’s economy will grow 4.3% in 2026, while warning states to turn higher revenues into jobs and better services.

Fuel Costs and Labour: The government announced a 30-day petrol discount at NNPC stations, prioritising public transporters and proposing a N1,350-per-litre ceiling on landing costs. The NLC rejected short-term relief, giving the government 14 days to cut pump prices and begin minimum-wage talks. Gas and Oil: Nigeria LNG is exploring an eighth train, though its existing facility remains under force majeure and Train 7 is still more than a year from start-up. Separately, crude output rose to 1.821 million barrels per day in September, while regulators aim to restore 788,000 barrels per day of shut-in production. Agriculture: Researchers found that satellite data combined with farmers’ reports can reveal drought damage to rice crops, offering a potential boost to early-warning systems. Manufacturing: Textile stakeholders called for industry revival, warning that imports cost Nigeria up to N530 billion a year.

Oil and Gas: Nigeria has opened a 2026 licensing round for 40 blocks across onshore, shallow-water and deepwater areas. Bidders must disclose their ultimate owners as the country seeks fresh investment and higher production. Textiles: Industry stakeholders warn Nigeria loses up to ₦530bn a year to textile imports and are urging the government to operationalise the sector’s development board to preserve factories and support local cotton. Agriculture: Federal and state governments, alongside development partners, are working on a 10-year food-security plan focused on production, farmer livelihoods and stronger value chains. Power: Three transmission towers collapsed on the Karu-Keffi-Akwanga line after heavy rain, leaving feeders at Keffi and Akwanga substations unavailable while repairs are assessed. Manufacturing: Coleman is calling for tougher penalties for counterfeit cable makers, saying weak enforcement puts consumers and legitimate producers at risk. Renewable Energy: The Rural Electrification Agency and Stanbic IBTC have sealed a ₦100bn deal to support renewable energy.

Oil & Gas: Nigeria has opened a 2026 licensing round offering 40 oil and gas blocks as crude production reaches 1.821 million barrels a day. The government also says more than 70 rigs are active, up from fewer than 10 in 2023. Power & Manufacturing: Power generation has fallen sharply, with 16 plants reportedly offline; manufacturers spent an estimated N1.35 trillion on alternative power in 2025. A federal-Lagos push for 24-hour electricity through energy zones aims to ease the burden. Factory Pressure: Textile workers’ union TUC warns rising electricity and gas costs are driving layoffs, while manufacturing’s share of GDP has fallen to 7.7%, far below the government’s 25% target for 2030. Green Industry: A Lagos food factory has begun using a biodigester to turn waste into energy, while APM Terminals is urging investment in bankable green port projects. Innovation: NASENI has awarded N435.5 million in grants to home-grown innovators, backing technology development and industrialisation.

Power & Industry: Nigeria’s power generation dropped 37.17% to 3,885.72MW, while DISCOs posted ₦129bn revenue losses amid 184,024 consumer complaints—raising pressure on manufacturers to keep spending on alternative power. Manufacturing Cost Shock: MAN says manufacturers spent about ₦1.35trn on alternative power in 2025, up 23% from 2024, warning factories may scale down as self-generation becomes unsustainable. FX & Business Climate: The naira inched up at NAFEM to N1,330.87/$1 as forex turnover jumped to $313.5m, with reserves nearing $55bn—signals that can support industrial planning. Oil & Gas: NLNG credited improved indigenous support for lifting plant utilisation to 82% and delivering 31 cargoes above plan; meanwhile, OPEC+ kept November output targets unchanged. Energy Policy: FG and Lagos push 24/7 power via energy zones, while NDPHC expands dedicated supply through its Eligible Customer Programme. Consumer Protection: Veteran actress Ngozi Ezeonu renewed alarms over fake medicines and baby food circulating in Nigeria. Tech & Skills: TechCabal unveiled Moonshot 2026 theme, “Courage & Conviction,” as Nigeria’s innovation push continues. Finance & Trust: Banking communicators were urged to anchor digital transformation on credibility, clarity, innovation and ethics.

Power & Industry: FG and Lagos agreed to push 24/7 electricity via Energy Zones, starting Lagos and extending to Abuja-Kaduna-Kano and Enugu-Port Harcourt corridors, with grid stabilization and governance harmonisation in focus. Manufacturing Push: Tinubu told MAN manufacturers to boost output, local sourcing and skills, and to chase African market expansion as Nigeria targets deeper industrialisation. Oil & Gas Policy: NUPRC says crude output hit 1.821m bpd on improved upstream activity; it also unveiled Nigeria’s 2026 licensing round with 40 blocks and added transparency on beneficial ownership. Finance & Markets: Nigeria’s equities market slid again, losing about ₦256bn as the NGX All-Share Index fell for a fifth straight session. Insurance Reform: Reps’ spokesperson says NIIRA implementation is restoring confidence through capital adequacy, governance and consumer protection. Food Systems: Shettima led Nigeria’s nutrition leadership exchange in Addis Ababa, while Lagos flagged World Food Day activities under “Innovate Today, Nourish Tomorrow.” Digital & Services: NIGCOMSAT reiterated its drive for reliable connectivity and better customer service. Infrastructure Oversight: Residents raised alarms over drainage quality on an ₦12.79bn Ibadan road project, urging inspection. Education & Labour: SSANU issued a 14-day ultimatum over university salary arrears, threatening an indefinite strike.

Energy & Industry Power: Nigeria’s electricity generation slid to 2,033.66MW as 16 power plants recorded zero output, deepening blackouts and pushing firms back to costly diesel. Manufacturing Costs: MAN says Nigerian manufacturers spent N1.35trn on alternative power in 2025, up 23%, warning self-generation is becoming unsustainable. Petrol Market Moves: Dangote Refinery stopped selling petrol to major marketers importing fuel, saying some blend its product with lower-quality imports; meanwhile petrol prices in Calabar and Port Harcourt dipped below Dangote’s ex-gantry rate amid stronger supply and competition. Trade & Logistics: Cotonou port expansion is boosting transit traffic across West Africa, with stakeholders watching how Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Chad-linked flows reshape regional trade. Food Security: Abubakar Kyari claims food prices have fallen by up to 50% since 2023, citing expanded input delivery and rural support. Skills & Tech: First Bank opened applications for its 2026 Technology Academy for graduates in engineering/IT/data and related fields. Education & Human Capital: NHEP2.0 says 70% of children under 10 can’t read simple sentences, raising alarm for workforce readiness. Aviation Tragedy: Nigeria declared three days of mourning after a military ATR-42 crash in Ondo killed 32, with an investigation ordered.

LPG Price Push: Asiko Energy says its fully mounded 5,000MT LPG/propane terminal in Ijora, Lagos is ready to blend cheaper cooking gas grades and cut prices for the domestic market. Oil & Gas Strategy: NAPE urged operators to stop working in silos and adopt integrated seismic inversion and forward seismic modelling to unlock reserves in mature and deepwater fields. Power Market Pressure: NERC data shows Discos’ Q2 revenue hit N603.64bn, but FG subsidy debt rose above N321bn as collection efficiency averaged 81.06% amid metering and service challenges. Gas Infrastructure Funding: NNPC earmarked N473.8bn for gas projects including the Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline and AKK pipeline cash calls/equity injections. Offshore Investment Pipeline: NUPRC unveiled 22 major offshore projects (deepwater and shallow-water) aimed at attracting new upstream capital. Industrial Policy Reality Check: Stakeholders say Nigeria’s 2025 Industrial Policy can work, but credit, FX access, and high/unstable power remain the biggest blockers. Food Safety Clarity: NAFDAC DG said Nigerians are “very ignorant” about food safety roles, stressing NAFDAC regulates processed/semi-processed foods and pesticide use, not fresh produce sold in markets. Renewables Finance: NSIA and Africa50 commercially launched a $300m Distributed Renewable Energy fund to scale mini-grids and solar home systems. Trade & Ports Law: Maritime experts warn Nigeria’s digital port systems need a clear legal framework to avoid delays and disputes. Elections Tech Prep: INEC acquired 57,000 new BVAS devices ahead of 2027, while INEC says the voter register is now over 103m. Security & Mining: FG/VP Shettima pledged N250m for families of 37 miners who died in NSCDC custody, with investigations ongoing. Aviation Tragedy: A Nigerian Air Force ATR-42 crash in Ondo killed all 32 on board.

Gas & Industry Investment: Nigeria’s gas push gets a boost as FG lists $3.5bn in projects reaching Final Investment Decision, including Iseni, Ubeta, HI and Ima, plus progress on the Brass Methanol project—aimed at turning gas into reliable industrial power and jobs. Power Sector Reality Check: Nigeria’s Q2 2026 GDP rose 4.43%, but electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply shrank 10.63%, with only 32.69% of grid-connected capacity available on average—highlighting the ongoing grid reliability gap. FX & Business Climate: The naira strengthens against the euro to cross N1,500 per euro, while CBN data shows firms expect modest naira gains ahead despite multiple taxation, insecurity and high interest rates. Telecom Expansion: New telecom operator STN confirms its numbering blocks and plans nationwide rollout after securing a UASL licence. Consumer Credit for MSMEs: CREDICORP targets over 2 million Nigerians for consumer credit in 2027, with credit education and NIN-linked identification to expand formal borrowing. Security & Trade: NDLEA reports major drug seizures at airports and seaports, while Liberia signs a deal with Nigeria’s LADOL to build a Buchanan shorebase to keep more oil services and jobs local.

Security & Food Security: Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari demands justice after 15 farmers were killed by suspected terrorists in Borno’s Marte, and urges action to find three missing victims. Power & Industry: Azu Ishiekwene argues Nigeria’s electricity crisis is still unresolved under Joseph Tegbe’s first 100 days, pointing to weak grid availability and heavy sector debt. Maritime & Trade Facilitation: NPA moves export operations inland to cut bottlenecks and boost non-oil forex inflows, while NIMASA plans webinars to showcase automation of the Nigerian Ship Registry. Industrial Policy: NUC approves Western Delta University to start Computer and Electrical/Electronic Engineering programmes for 2026/27. Consumer Safety: Rut Kadiri warns Nigerians about fake, contaminated products and links the trend to rising health harms. Finance & Business Climate: Heirs Insurance boss Wole Fayemi challenges insurers to rebuild trust via prompt claims; a mutual-fund report highlights gaps between headline returns and what investors actually earn. Education & Skills: WAEC appoints Suleiman Danlami Kum as Head of Nigeria National Office. Youth & Investment: Dangote Foundation launches a Student Share Grant initiative to teach investing and ownership to university students. Automotive Sector: NADDC begins nationwide registration of motor dealers to formalise the market. Arts & Global Reach: ‘Dear Ajayi’ is selected as Nigeria’s official Oscars submission; Nora Awolowo becomes a Canon ambassador after Guinness-record film screening.

Border Tech & Trade Facilitation: Nigeria Customs rolled out a digital baggage Import Declaration System at Seme, promising faster clearance (under five minutes) and automated duty checks, with ₦10.3m collected in early days. Macroeconomy & Industry Demand: CBN’s September PMI showed Nigeria’s economic activity expanded for the fourth straight month, hitting 53.0 points as output and new orders improved, though some subsectors still contracted. Capital Markets: NGX market capitalisation fell week-on-week, with investors losing about ₦812bn as equities cooled; meanwhile, 11 blue-chip firms still dominated market value at ₦122.56tn. Energy & Governance: SERAP urged Tinubu to investigate alleged diversion of over ₦94.4bn linked to the MDGIF and NUPRC, while VP Shettima defended subsidy removal and FX reforms as preventing deeper collapse. Telecom Competition: STN secured a Unified Access Service Licence, setting up a new push into voice and data services nationwide. Food & Consumer Industry: Nestlé Nigeria reported 2023 revenue of ₦547.1bn but a ₦79.4bn loss tied to FX on dollar loans, alongside ongoing local sourcing and packaging initiatives. Regulation & Consumer Protection: FCCPC proposed AI marketing rules requiring registration of AI tools and penalties up to ₦100m for misleading automated promotions. Health & Local Production: NAFDAC called for partner support to build vaccine manufacturing (fill-and-finish) to reach WHO lot-release maturity. Agribusiness Push: MAGGI’s regenerative soybean work is expanding, aiming to boost yields and local sourcing for industrial inputs.

Mining & Security: Two civil society groups urged Nigerians not to blame NSCDC Commandant-General Prof. Ahmed Audi personally over deaths of suspected illegal miners in Minna, Niger State, calling for transparent, evidence-based investigations. Aviation Fuel: Nigeria’s airlines received about 749.2m litres of aviation fuel from January–August 2026, with daily receipts averaging 3.1m litres but dipping to 1.6m in February, highlighting supply swings that can disrupt flight schedules. Housing & Construction Costs: JustOne Homes’ CEO said property prices are rising as inflation, construction material costs, exchange-rate pressure and infrastructure expenses squeeze buyers and renters. Creative Economy: The EU pledged fresh funding for Nigeria’s creative sector, backing artists and cultural events including the Lagos Contemporary Circus Festival. Oil & Gas Policy: Petroleum minister Heineken Lokpobiri defended Tinubu’s oil reforms, saying crude output rose over 80% to 1.824m bpd (with condensate), and warned that petrol subsidy is financially unsustainable. Industrial Infrastructure: Ajaokuta’s long-stalled steel complex was linked to a $8b-plus sunk-cost narrative as analysts question why the plant still hasn’t rolled commercial coils. Energy & Skills: MSS and KolaDaisi University graduated 60+ students from an Event Tech Academy, training LED, sound, video, lighting and rigging for industry needs. Agriculture: FG said wheat output jumped from 120,000 to 420,000 metric tonnes via NAGS-AP, using subsidised inputs and extension services. Navy Anti-Theft: Nigerian Navy and anti-petroleum-theft task forces uncovered a 40,000-litre illegal refinery in Rivers creeks and arrested suspects. Labour/Rule of Law: Enugu law officers began a seven-day warning strike over unpaid allowances and welfare; the NDC governorship candidate condemned the action’s root causes as neglect of public servants.