AGP Executive Report

Fuel & Downstream: Several filling stations cut petrol prices to about ₦1,330–₦1,350/litre as marketers respond to Dangote Refinery pricing pressure and Middle East-driven oil market swings. Oil Output & OPEC: Nigeria hit an 11-month high in May, averaging 1.53mbpd crude and 170,446bpd condensates, exceeding its OPEC quota (about 102%), a boost for government revenue and forex. Energy Infrastructure: SONATRACH broke ground on Algeria’s segment of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, reviving the corridor to move Nigerian gas to Europe via Niger and Algeria. Industry Skills & Jobs: FG commissioned an Automotive Training Centre in Gusau, Zamfara, graduating 100 youths trained to repair petrol and CNG tricycles/motorcycles, as policy reforms push local capacity. Mining & Data: SMDF says “data is the new oil” under the EMERGE mineral exploration push, shifting Nigeria toward data-driven evaluation and value addition. Urban Infrastructure: Lagos plans to reconstruct major Ikeja GRA roads with concrete pavement and solar street lighting. Business Climate: NESG’s Business Confidence Monitor shows fragile expansion in May, with manufacturing, services and trade improving despite power outages, insecurity and finance limits. Aviation Sector: Max Air domestic operations face disruption after ground handlers withdrew services over unpaid debts. Macro Watch: World Bank cut 2026 global growth outlook to 2.5%, citing Middle East conflict, higher energy prices and borrowing costs.

Oil & Gas Market Signals: Nigeria’s crude output hit a 15-month high in May, rising to 1.53mbpd and pushing the country above its OPEC quota for the first time in 10 months, a boost for forex and investor confidence. Fuel Pricing: Premium motor spirit pump prices eased as filling stations adjusted to Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot cut, while crude volatility tied to Middle East tensions keeps prices fluid. LPG Crisis: Cooking gas prices surged again amid domestic supply shortages and higher depot rates, pushing many households back to firewood/charcoal. Power & Infrastructure: Abia State gets a digital healthcare upgrade as Interswitch rolls out its eClinic electronic medical records platform to improve service delivery. Energy Access: Greenville (Liberia) moves toward electrification after 30+ years, with EU-funded works nearing completion—another reminder of how power delivery unlocks business activity. Industrial Finance: FMDQ Exchange approved quotation of Sunbeth Global Concepts’ N150.41bn multi-series commercial papers, showing continued corporate appetite for market-based funding. Aviation Safety: NCAA suspended an operator’s permit after a private jet landed on a road near Asaba and left without proper clearance. Security & Transport: NSCDC confirmed five operatives injured in a Delta train derailment; authorities are probing the cause. Local Industry/Trade Zones: NEPZA reassured investors at the Calabar Free Trade Zone, with calls for better street lighting and solar-powered solutions. MSMEs & Jobs: A US-backed venture studio launched a N600bn scheme for Imo grassroots micro-businesses under OKOBI to improve capital access. Food Security Debate: Peter Obi renewed criticism of Tinubu’s food strategy as hunger worsens, while S&P Global warns food prices could drive inflation across emerging markets. Consumer & Retail: Golden Terra Oil launched the “Get Gold Promo” rewarding buyers with free seasoning packs. Governance & Courts: Senate moves to expand appellate and federal court capacity amid backlog concerns.

Aviation Safety: Nigeria’s NCAA and Minister Festus Keyamo moved to investigate an aircraft that landed on an unfinished road near Asaba, then departed without clearance—operator’s permit was suspended and the flight grounded. Energy & Industry Finance: Standard Bank Group backed Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s planned IPO and future expansion, while the refinery’s listing continues to draw capital-market attention. AfCFTA Export Push: Nigeria is set to use a $1bn AfCFTA financing window to help exporters scale production and integrate into regional value chains, with focus on documentation and trade barriers. Oil Sector Oversight: Senate renewed its arrest directive for former NNPCL boss Mele Kyari over alleged gaps in ₦210tn audit queries, keeping pressure on accountability in the oil firm. Power Sector Watch: New Power Minister Joseph Tegbe inherits a grid crisis marked by frequent collapses and uneven Electricity Act 2023 rollout, with calls for stronger governance across the value chain. Food & Health Debate: Stakeholders renewed concerns over GMO foods and unsafe food, as Nigeria faces high foodborne illness and death figures. Security & Economy: IMF commended Tinubu’s reforms for improving macro stability, but warned poverty and food insecurity risks remain as inflation pressures continue. Regional Energy Infrastructure: Algeria’s SONATRACH broke ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment to move Nigerian gas toward European markets.

Dangote Refinery Finance & Energy Security: Standard Bank pledged support for Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s planned IPO and future expansion, reinforcing Nigeria’s push to deepen local refining capacity. Telecom Transparency: Airtel Nigeria launched a Web Data Calculator to help subscribers estimate internet usage, following similar moves after data depletion complaints. Macroeconomic Outlook: The IMF said Nigeria’s reforms are improving stability and resilience, but warned poverty and food insecurity remain severe; it also projected foreign reserves could reach $62bn by 2027. Crypto Regulation: The IMF urged Nigeria to strengthen stablecoin and crypto oversight to protect monetary policy, financial stability, and capital flow management. Power & Infrastructure: Tinubu commissioned Abuja’s Arterial Road N5, promising lower logistics costs and investment gains. Security & Industry Impact: Bandits attacked communities in Niger State, killing residents and rustling cattle; separately, FCT police operations reportedly killed suspected bandits and rescued kidnapping victims. Defence Manufacturing: DICON partner DICON Gray unveiled an indigenous tactical shotgun platform to support state security outfits. Tax Administration: FG launched Rev360, a digital tax platform aimed at boosting compliance and revenue collection. Trade & Manufacturing Policy: Senate moves to ban textile imports to revive local mills, while SMEDAN pushed packaging and branding reforms to make nMSMEs export-ready under AfCFTA. Aviation Safety: NCAA grounded a private jet after it landed on a roadway near Asaba without approval.

Telecom Consumer Relief: NCC says MTN, Airtel, Glo and 9mobile have compensated 75m+ Nigerians with free airtime after poor network quality complaints, following an NCC directive. Energy & Households: Nigeria’s cooking gas crisis deepens as LPG supply lags demand and more gas is exported; prices have jumped sharply, pushing many households toward charcoal. Industrial Policy: The Senate moves to ban textile imports to revive local mills, create jobs and cut insecurity linked to unemployment and smuggling. Power Sector Governance: TCN says transmission can handle more than current generation and urges stronger laws and political will to curb vandalism, while LASG seeks tighter enforcement on industrial pollution. Macroeconomy & Finance: IMF flags opacity risks in Nigeria’s proposed $5bn Abu Dhabi Bank swap/derivatives-style borrowing, while FG insists reforms are working. Housing Finance: Tinubu says 1,859 families in 25 states accessed N128bn mortgages under MOFI at 9.75% fixed interest. Trade & Infrastructure: Algeria breaks ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment, reviving the corridor to move Nigerian gas to Europe. Security & Politics: Senate queries defence spending over rising kidnappings; Kwankwaso calls for a security strategy overhaul beyond budgets. Digital Messaging: Truecaller and Gupshup partner to expand verified business messaging across Nigeria and other markets.

Energy & Infrastructure: SONATRACH breaks ground on Algeria’s segment of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, reviving a major corridor to move Nigerian gas to Europe via Niger and Algeria. Power Sector: New Power Minister Joseph Tegbe pledges “visible improvements” and structured reforms aimed at reliable, affordable electricity. Oil & Gas Business: Seplat Energy names Tony Elumelu as incoming Chairman (Jan 2027) and Engr. Effiong Okon as CEO (Aug 1, 2026) under its Roadmap 2030. Economy & Finance: Nigeria’s reforms get a boost as the IMF issues a positive Article IV assessment; meanwhile, the IMF warns against a proposed $5bn derivatives-based financing plan as potentially opaque. Telecoms Consumer Protection: NCC says operators have compensated over 75m subscribers for poor network quality, while it independently verifies claims. Trade & Industry Policy: Senate pushes for a total ban on textile imports to revive local manufacturing and jobs; FG also unveils a $1bn AfCFTA Adjustment Fund Credit Facility to help exporters scale. Security: Nigerian Army reports an ambush in Kaduna’s Rigachikun area that killed an officer and six soldiers. Governance & Compliance: INEC invalidates 2,103 double voter registrations in Ekiti ahead of the June 20 governorship election. Digital Regulation: Senate advances a bill to regulate virtual assets and cryptocurrency service providers.

Power Sector Reform: TCN granted Mainstream Energy Solutions access to start construction of 2×330kV bays at Kainji, targeting an extra 220MW evacuation once new turbines come online. Cabinet & Policy: President Tinubu swore in Joseph Tegbe as Minister of Power, promising gradual but visible electricity improvements, while NCC appointed Princess Emiko as interim chair of the Digital Bridge Institute. Energy Trade & Costs: Nigeria’s petrol import bill crashed to N87.40bn in Q1 2026 (down 96% y/y), driven by heavier reliance on locally refined products, especially Dangote. Digital Economy: MTN launched One TV, a pay-as-you-go streaming service where users can pay with airtime or mobile money, and telcos rejected NBS’s telecom foreign-capital figures. Trade & Investment: Nigeria’s trade surplus jumped to N7.55tn in Q1 2026 as imports fell; Afreximbank said it has committed $83bn to Nigeria, with Lagos set to host the next Intra-African Trade Fair. Agribusiness Risks: Plateau farmers face fake fertiliser threats, while Nasarawa plans mini dams to boost year-round farming.

Rail & Aviation Infrastructure: FG says it will extend Lagos’ Red Line rail to Murtala Muhammed Airport terminals (Ikeja Bus Stop to GAT, MMA2 and the international wing), aiming to deepen Lagos’ aviation and logistics hub status. Energy & Gas Exports: Algeria’s SONATRACH breaks ground on its segment of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, reviving a project meant to move Nigerian gas through Niger to Algeria and onward to Europe. Healthcare Security: NARD declares assaults on healthcare workers a National Health and Security Emergency, citing 21 cases of attacks in a year and issuing a 21-day ultimatum to the Tinubu government. Local Government Finance Probe: Edo ALGON chair Sunday Akiotu is being grilled by police SFU over alleged diversion of council funds, including N100m-linked transactions. Trade & Industry Signals: NBS reports Nigeria’s trade picture improved in Q1 2026, while imports fell year-on-year; Ghana also rejects mine nationalisation at a West Africa mining forum, pushing for predictable rules. Digital Economy & Payments: CBN plans to deploy AI under PSV 2028 to curb fraud in digital payments, as fintech Moniepoint expands engineering talent via DreamDevs. Labour & Security Pressure: NLC and TUC threaten nationwide strike over worsening insecurity, warning workers’ livelihoods and productivity are under siege. Public Health & Food Safety: FG rolls out new malaria tools (next-gen ITNs and vaccine/chemoprevention approaches), and WAEC reports exam disruptions after a deadly crash carrying WASSCE papers.

Power & Grid Expansion: TCN has handed site access to Mainstream Energy Solutions to build two 330kV evacuation bays at Kainji, targeting 2x330kV bays to evacuate 220MW from new 110MW turbines by December. Payments Security: The CBN says it will deploy AI under its Nigeria Payments System Vision 2028 to curb fraud, cyber threats, identity theft and unauthorised transactions. Oil & Gas Regulation: NUPRC and NNRA plan a single-window regulatory system to cut duplicate filings, reduce fees and strengthen radiological oversight in upstream operations. Renewables & Women Finance: Bank of Industry wins continental awards for DARES solar mini-grid financing and its GLOW guaranteed loans for women. Ports Decarbonisation: Stevedoring operators urge an efficiency-driven green transition for Nigerian ports, warning compliance must be funded and backed by an equipment upgrade roadmap. Energy Access Innovation: NERC rolls out net billing rules letting Nigerians earn from excess solar power sold to DisCos. Trade & Export Barriers: NACCIMA’s road trip to Togo flags delays, multiple checkpoints and non-tariff barriers hurting cross-border trade. Energy Cost Pressure: Nigeria’s cooking gas shortage is pushing LPG prices higher as more gas output is exported than supplied domestically. Governance & Economy: A court struck down the National Assembly’s ₦110bn vehicle and allowances spending as unlawful, citing procurement and accountability breaches. Business & Investment: Nigeria’s trade sector attracted $65.79m foreign capital in Q1 2026, up 91.31% year-on-year, as capital inflows hit $10.37bn. Security & Human Capital: Ogun students’ safety fears and wider insecurity concerns keep disrupting education and livelihoods, while the NAF launches aerial surveillance to rescue Oriire school pupils and teachers.

Banking Supervision: African central bank supervisors met in Yaounde to sharpen oversight for emerging risks like digital fraud, stablecoins, cyber and climate threats, warning that regulators must stay resilient as systemic and cross-border risks grow. Telecom Regulation Clash: Nigeria’s FCCPC denied reports that President Tinubu approved new airtime credit operators, saying DEON digital lending enforcement remains suspended by a Lagos court order pending July 20 hearing. Data Billing Row: MTN Nigeria defended its data billing and unveiled “Data on Trial” transparency steps, but CEO Karl Toriola’s claim that affordable “unlimited” data isn’t feasible sparked backlash and protest threats from Omoyele Sowore. Capital Markets: Nigerian equities extended losses, wiping ₦2.28tn as the NGX All-Share Index fell 1.44% amid broad profit-taking. Insurance Industry: SUPERNEWS announced Joyce Odiachi as chair for PILA’s July 7 investiture conference on local content and digitisation in oil & gas and insurance. Maritime & Fisheries: Nigeria said it will leverage the EU’s €59m WASOP to fight illegal fishing and boost Gulf of Guinea enforcement and ocean governance. Climate & Transport: Cross River launched a resilience plan for flooding and clean transport, including electric mass transit buses by 2027, while Dangote Cement scaled AI and telematics-backed road safety programmes. Security Update: The army rescued 360 Boko Haram abductees in Borno’s Mandara Mountains, though two infants died during evacuation.

Ebola Response in Mining Towns: Congo’s Ebola epicentre Mongbwalu is straining frontline health workers, who say they get little pay and rest as cases keep arriving from crowded gold-mining camps. Farmers-Herders Peace: KACRAN urges farmers and herders to protect farmlands, grazing reserves and cattle routes as insecurity, fuel costs and displacement threaten the 2026/2027 season and food security. Telecom Data Transparency: MTN holds a “Data on Trial” public session and plans a self-service data usage portal, promising N1trn network expansion while tackling complaints of rapid data depletion. Energy & Household Costs: Cooking gas prices jump to as high as ₦2,400/kg in parts of Nigeria, deepening pressure on already strained households. Road Safety Tech: FG plans CCTV and solar-powered surveillance along the Mararaba–Keffi Road as a pilot to improve highway security and emergency response. Banking Reform Boost: Nigeria’s Supreme Court clears the Providus–Unity merger, strengthening confidence in consolidation under the CBN recapitalisation push. Insurance Market Pressure: Listed insurers’ revenue falls 9.9% to N228bn in Q1 2026 despite improved profitability, highlighting low penetration. Food Security Aid: Thailand donates 12 metric tonnes of rice to Nigeria via WFP as insecurity could drive severe hunger for up to 34.7m people. Oil & Gas Investment Gap: Oil and gas attracted only $0.46m in foreign capital in Q1 2026 despite a big rise in total capital importation, showing persistent investor caution.

Security & Governance: Peter Obi faults the FG’s reactive insecurity moves, citing Tinubu’s reported approval to recruit about 1,000 forest guards for Oyo as piecemeal and calling for a national framework. Consumer & Telecom Regulation: WASPAN accuses FCCPC of expanding DEON digital lending approvals despite a court order and suspension, while MTN opens its data billing and network operations to public scrutiny to explain rapid data depletion drivers like streaming, auto-updates and hotspot sharing. Energy Transition & Power: REA will lead discussions at the 2026 Oriental News Conference on Nigeria’s renewable energy transition pathway, as NERC pushes net billing rules letting consumers sell excess solar power back to the grid. Mining & Enforcement: NYC backs Mining Marshals against illegal mining as enforcement capacity gets boosted; Akwa Ibom CSOs also demand disclosure and reversal of gas flare penalty remittances. Transport & Industry Costs: NRC says it’s running at a loss and borrowing to operate due to diesel costs. Business & Investment: Lagos pitches Invest Lagos 3.0 to attract about ₦4trn in fresh investments across infrastructure, tech, housing, agriculture and transport.

Airtime & Data Market Shake-up: Tinubu moves to dismantle Optasia’s 12-year dominance in Nigeria’s airtime credit and data advance market, following FCCPC recommendations—aimed at boosting local fintech competition and curbing capital flight in a sector said to be worth over N3trn annually. Security Crisis: Kidnapping and banditry remain the headline threat, with reports of abducted schoolchildren and teachers in Oyo, plus fresh attacks across states as troops repel insurgents in the north-east, underscoring the pressure on 2027 election security. FX Market Reform: The CBN’s revised Foreign Exchange Manual is framed as a rules-and-transparency reset to restore confidence, improve liquidity, and reduce opacity in FX access and settlement. Renewables & Power Trading: NERC’s net billing rules and related solar mini-grid guidelines push a new path for consumers to earn from excess solar power and connect to the grid. Pharma Localisation: PMG-MAN targets 70% local production of medicines, announcing the 2026 Nigeria Pharma Manufacturers Expo to drive medicine sovereignty. Humanitarian Logistics: DHL launches the DHL Academy of Humanitarian Logistics to train local responders on customs, dangerous goods handling, packaging and safety. Xenophobia Fallout: Nigeria ramps up repatriation efforts as over 1,000 Nigerians seek to return home amid escalating xenophobic tensions in South Africa.

Dangote Refinery Expansion: Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals says it has ramped crude processing to 700,000 bpd in a performance test, surpassing its 650,000 bpd nameplate and targeting 1.4m bpd within 30 months—aimed at cutting Nigeria’s refined fuel import dependence. Power & Solar Trading: NERC has rolled out net billing rules allowing Nigerians to earn from excess solar power sold back to DisCos, while also approving special compensation for Band A customers affected by grid shortfalls. Healthcare Infrastructure: NNPC Foundation commissioned a 1.5 Tesla MRI system for the National Orthopaedic Hospital in Kano to improve access and reduce delays for advanced diagnostics. Maritime Security: Nigeria’s proposed Coast Guard push is back in focus as stakeholders argue it’s the missing link to coordinate safety, enforcement and economic protection across the coastline. Flood Preparedness: NEMA flags high flood risks across 23 states and the FCT for the 2026 rainy season, urging early coordinated action. Human Rights & Cost of Living: HURIWA condemns a cooking gas price surge to as high as N2,000/kg as an economic cruelty and a human rights issue. Migration Tensions: Nigeria begins screening for voluntary repatriation of 1,000+ nationals from South Africa amid rising xenophobic hostility. Industry Tech Services: Smart Hands Africa adds Supermicro to its services portfolio, expanding installation, maintenance and break-fix support across multiple African markets including Nigeria.

Maritime & Ports: FG renewed its push to actualise the Agge Deep Sea Port in Bayelsa, saying it will boost trade, create jobs and attract investment into the Niger Delta and Nigeria’s blue economy. Energy & Power Regulation: NERC ordered Discos to compensate Band ‘A’ customers for February–March service shortfalls linked to gas supply constraints and vandalism, while regulators also warned a 2026 Electricity Act amendment could disrupt power sector decentralisation and undo billions in investment. Oil & Refining: Dangote Refinery hit 700,000 bpd in a performance ramp-up, positioning it to cut import dependence and strengthen Africa’s refining outlook. Digital Finance & Telecom: Nigeria’s banks are fighting back in digital payments as fintechs face tougher rules; meanwhile foreign capital into telecoms fell to a four-year low, despite tariff adjustments. Cyber & Digital Trust: Government plans a national cybersecurity coordination council as NDPC flags intensifying DDoS attacks. Agribusiness & Food Security: ECOWAS and partners launched a drive to mobilise investment for rice self-sufficiency by 2035. Industry & Business Climate: NESG said business confidence rose in May, with manufacturing and services improving, even as agriculture and some trade indicators stayed fragile. Shipping & Logistics: SAFEEN Drydocks secured major vessel construction contracts worth $354m, including Nigeria’s Oilbank Logistics support units. Public Health & Consumer Safety: CAPPA raised alarm over rising nicotine products targeting youth, urging urgent regulatory action.

Aquaculture & Food Security: A Blue Food Innovation Summit says Africa—especially Nigeria—could cut seafood imports (Nigeria reportedly imports $1bn–$2bn yearly) by scaling local production if feed, seed and infrastructure improve. Anti-Terror & Kidnapping Response: FG renewed the offensive in Oyo and Borno, promising rescue of abducted pupils and teachers, deploying a specialised rescue team and recruiting 1,000 forest guards. Energy Transition & Power Trading: FG signed MoUs with Ukrainian partners and 15 others to boost energy efficiency and renewables; NERC also moved to let Nigerians earn from excess solar power via new net billing rules. Maritime & Shipping Capacity: SAFEEN Drydocks won major contracts worth $354m, including 18 specialised marine support units for Nigeria’s Oilbank Logistics; NLNG’s Maritime Centre of Excellence gained UK Nautical Institute certification to expand seafarer training. Business Climate: NESG reports Nigeria’s business confidence index rose to 104.6 in May, but firms still face insecurity, power outages and high costs. Agriculture & Water: Sokoto is reviving Lugu Dam to restore irrigation and boost rice output; NEMA flagged 148 Jigawa communities as moderate flood-risk areas. Security on the Ground: Troops arrested suspected Boko Haram/ISWAP logistics suppliers in Borno, disrupting fuel supply chains.